Cold weather ahead for the US

All signs are indicating now that most of us will be seeing extremely cold weather by the end of this month. Lets take a look first at the teleconnections.

Here we can see the AO. The AO is forecast to go strongly negative, which is very good for the potential of really cold air in the US. Now lets take a look at the NAO.

Here the NAO is forecast to be neutral if not slightly negative. That is also very good!

Here the PNA is forecast ot be positive. That is the 3rd good teleconnection for cold air! If the PNA is positive, and the NAO is negative, we have a good chance of getting rid of that stubborn southeast ridge that has been troubling us for the month of December.

Now, I want everyone to keep in mind that it will be getting warmer in the coming week, but that does not mean it will stay that way. I believe that because the teleconnections here reflect a very cold pattern, and the stratosphere is undergoing significant warming (I have not mentioned this in the post here but if you want more info check out this post here http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/stratospheric-analysis-and-forecast.html ) this will lead to a significant cold period by the end of the month.

Now I present my temperature anomaly graphic for the end of the month.

I know this may seem a little over-done, but I will be very surprised if we get to the end of January without seeing some very cold air across our region.

 

Karl