Arctic Outbreak-Nor'Easter Possibility

It is gonna be very cold in the near future for much of the country. So im gonna break down the following topics: The Arctic Outbreak, and the possibility of a major east coast snowstorm by the the third week of January.

PART 1: The Arctic Outbreak
We all know that by the 3rd week of January, there is going to be a major arctic outbreak. This will be due to the collapsing of the polar vortex which will head south toward the US, and end its route somewhere around the Great Lakes, in Southern Canada or Northern Michigan and Minnesota. The highs could be very low all over the country, starting from -30s in the Upper Plains and the Great Lakes Region, as well as the Northeast, to teens and 20s in the southeast! First, lets take a look at the telleconnections:

The NAO seems to be neutral to slightly positive. If we had only one telleconnection, then the weather would have been warm, but we have other telleconnections except the NAO. Lets take a look at the AO.

The AO seems to be very negative, and that means it can get really frigid across the east coast. That is one of the signs that show the Arctic Outbreak coming. Also, when the PNA is positive, this means cold for the east. And the PNA is positive!

Now that we see the telloconnections agreeing to show cold air, lets go on to the models, many of which show frigid air for the eastern half of the country the next two weeks. The GFS, in fact, shows extremely frigid air spilling into the whole country in 8-10 dyas.

Below is the CMC for hour 240, which also shows very cold air for the eastern 2/3 of the US.

These 2 models show it really cold in the future, SO I THINK THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE VERY 'BONE-CHILLING', BUT I CANNOT BE 100% SURE HOW COLD ITS GONNA BE. However, below is my newest prediction of how cold its gonna be till the end of January.

Part 2: A Nor'Easter for the East Coast Possible
Models are showing a possible east coast snow event around the 19th, but there will be one problem: Due to the stratospheric warming, THE SYSTEMS WILL PROBABLY, UNFORTUNATELY, NOT PHASE. Below is a look at several models. Lets start with the ECMWF...

According to the ECMWF, we can expect moderate snow for the northeast. The GFS shiws a light snow event for the northeast. *NOTE* The GFS is often making mistakes until the 48-hour range arrives, so I should ask you not to believe in the GFS very much due to its lack of accurateness.

Lets take a look at the CMC now. It shows some decent snow for the midwest and northeast, but not more than the other models.

Now, below I wanna show you my snowfall predictions and the track of the storm.

Stay tuned for more winter updates! Bye!