Blog Permanently Closed

This blog is permanently closed. Please do not expect any more updates from this blog. If you want more weather updates from me, please go to blog.weathernowus.com, I will be updating that site frequently. Thanks.

Several Arctic Outbreaks Ahead, Southern/Eastern Snow Possible, My Preliminary Spring Outlook

Hi, I am gonna tell you how cold its gonna be with the Arctic Outbreaks Coming Up. I am also gonna show you the potential for southern snow January 25th-27th. Plus, in my previous post, I said about a preliminary spring outlook, and i am gonna show it to you now.

Part 1: The Arctic Outbreaks

There are 2 Arctic Outbreaks Coming Up, and I am gonna tell you about both. The first one is colder for the midwest and the plains, but, unfortunately, the very cold air does not reach the south. The second Arctic Outbreak will be weaker, but there will be colder air in the south then in the previous one. Below are my thoughts on how the two Arctic Outbreaks will turn out.

The graphics above tell you everything you want to know about the arctic outbreaks, and it is my final update for the first arctic outbreak. For the second one, there might be a revised version if something changes. Now, there is one interesting idea: If it will be so cold in the south starting on Friday and continuing through the Weekend, why couldn't there be snow in the east and the south? The answer is, that there is a potential for snow, and below, in the next section, I am going to explain to you how much snow could there be and approximately when.

Part 2: An Eastern Snow Storm
This weekend, there could be a surprise for the east, especially the southeast: S N O W!!!!!
Below, I am going to show you my thoughts on this storm, and where will be the most snow.

This map shows that cities like Atlanta and Greenville could see its first snowfall of the season. A mix will be as far south as eastern areas of Montgomery. There could be heavy snow once again in the mountains. Some areas in the mountains could receive a foot of snow. Below are my preliminary snowfall totals for the storm.

This map shows that there will be areas of 3-7 inches as far south as northern Atlanta, and even Greenville will be in the Coating-3 Inches area. The smokies could see 7-12 inches, and all of the Appalachians could see 3-7.  New England could see also up to 12 inches, locally more. This winter is all fine and handy, but will  it get warm in the spring? Below is my Preliminary Spring Outlook.

Part 3: My Preliminary Spring Outlook

Below are my 3 Preliminary Spring Outlooks, Temperatures, Precipitation, and Severe Weather Risk. 

My Spring Outlook #2 will come out on February 1st. Stay tuned for more winter updates, and for my next Spring Outlook!! Bye!

Cold Weather for the South to Start Next Week

Cold air will make it's way into the U.S. from Canada, and by Monday night it will drop into the South. On the map it shows how far south I think the jet stream will go. Also the map shows how cold the lows will get on Tuesday/Wednesday morning. Nashville and Raleigh looks like they will for sure have their coldest temperatures of the season where highs might not even surpass freezing all day. Further south won't be affected as much by the cold, especially South Florida.

Major lake effect situation! Could be measuring snow in feet!

HERE IS THE 12Z EURO WINDS SETTING UP THINGS GREAT FOR A LOT OF LAKE EFFECT!

00Z EURO WINDS SETTING UP FOR A AWESOME LAKE EFFECT SITUATION

HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT COULD WE SEE!

Update #2 on Arctic Cold Outbreak, Southeast Snow Event Coming, February 2013 Outlook

Hey Guys, I was planning to make a new update on the arctic cold Monday but I decided today instead. In this post, I will also inform you about: A Southeast Snow Event Coming Up, My February 2013 Outlook..

Part 1: The Arctic Outbreak
So, I still think that much of the country will plunge into a big arctic outbreak, especially because models continue to indicate a big cool down towards the 22nd-28th time frame. 30s may penetrate the US as far south as Southern Georgia, and towards the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina. Even low 40s will be as highs in cities like Jacksonville, Tallahassee, and Pensacola. OK, lets see the forecast for how cold it is gonna be for the US. *NOTE* Atlanta, Georgia WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S ON TUESDAY JANUARY THE 22ND.

Ok, so we have this done, now lets move on to talk about a possible snowstorm for the southeast.

Part 2: Southeast Snow
I think that there could be decent snow amounts for the southeast and mid atlantic with this system. Cities like Birmingham, and Atlanta will see its first snow of this season. Many other cities could see amounts of up to 6 inches. Below, there are two maps which tell about the storm.

This map means that much of the southeast will see 1-2 inches of snow, and some areas may even see 3 inches. In the mountains, higher amounts of snow are more than likely, adding up to 8 inches. Now lets see my February and Spring Outlooks.

Part 3: February Outlook
Below is my February outlook.

Stay tuned for more forecasts, and for my Preliminary Spring Outlook! Bye!

Arctic Outbreak-Nor'Easter Possibility

It is gonna be very cold in the near future for much of the country. So im gonna break down the following topics: The Arctic Outbreak, and the possibility of a major east coast snowstorm by the the third week of January.

PART 1: The Arctic Outbreak
We all know that by the 3rd week of January, there is going to be a major arctic outbreak. This will be due to the collapsing of the polar vortex which will head south toward the US, and end its route somewhere around the Great Lakes, in Southern Canada or Northern Michigan and Minnesota. The highs could be very low all over the country, starting from -30s in the Upper Plains and the Great Lakes Region, as well as the Northeast, to teens and 20s in the southeast! First, lets take a look at the telleconnections:

The NAO seems to be neutral to slightly positive. If we had only one telleconnection, then the weather would have been warm, but we have other telleconnections except the NAO. Lets take a look at the AO.

The AO seems to be very negative, and that means it can get really frigid across the east coast. That is one of the signs that show the Arctic Outbreak coming. Also, when the PNA is positive, this means cold for the east. And the PNA is positive!

Now that we see the telloconnections agreeing to show cold air, lets go on to the models, many of which show frigid air for the eastern half of the country the next two weeks. The GFS, in fact, shows extremely frigid air spilling into the whole country in 8-10 dyas.

Below is the CMC for hour 240, which also shows very cold air for the eastern 2/3 of the US.

These 2 models show it really cold in the future, SO I THINK THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE VERY 'BONE-CHILLING', BUT I CANNOT BE 100% SURE HOW COLD ITS GONNA BE. However, below is my newest prediction of how cold its gonna be till the end of January.

Part 2: A Nor'Easter for the East Coast Possible
Models are showing a possible east coast snow event around the 19th, but there will be one problem: Due to the stratospheric warming, THE SYSTEMS WILL PROBABLY, UNFORTUNATELY, NOT PHASE. Below is a look at several models. Lets start with the ECMWF...

According to the ECMWF, we can expect moderate snow for the northeast. The GFS shiws a light snow event for the northeast. *NOTE* The GFS is often making mistakes until the 48-hour range arrives, so I should ask you not to believe in the GFS very much due to its lack of accurateness.

Lets take a look at the CMC now. It shows some decent snow for the midwest and northeast, but not more than the other models.

Now, below I wanna show you my snowfall predictions and the track of the storm.

Stay tuned for more winter updates! Bye!

South Forecast: Warmth and Rain

This is the forecast for Saturday, January 12, 2013 in the South. It will be unseasonably warm and comfortable (and rainy for some). If you like warm, then enjoy it today, temperatures will fall back to around average for most places. Rain will mostly be in the western side of the region on Saturday. Rain will spread across all the way to Birmingham (from another system), where showers are most likely in the morning. The heavier rain will be in the Mississippi Delta, West Tennessee and East Arkansas, where rainfall could reach an inch in some areas, and don't be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder, although the severe weather threat is very low.

16-18th System (BEFORE THE MAJOR STORM)

CONFIDENCE: 75%

This will not be a major system, but it will be enough to cause some problems, this is a preliminary outlook since it is still about a week away, this is not the major storm that is expected to cause significant problems. This will be the one that will be very minor and help bring even more cold air to the south for the major system. We will have more updates on this as things can change but here is my current thinking!~Andrew

Cold weather ahead for the US

All signs are indicating now that most of us will be seeing extremely cold weather by the end of this month. Lets take a look first at the teleconnections.

Here we can see the AO. The AO is forecast to go strongly negative, which is very good for the potential of really cold air in the US. Now lets take a look at the NAO.

Here the NAO is forecast to be neutral if not slightly negative. That is also very good!

Here the PNA is forecast ot be positive. That is the 3rd good teleconnection for cold air! If the PNA is positive, and the NAO is negative, we have a good chance of getting rid of that stubborn southeast ridge that has been troubling us for the month of December.

Now, I want everyone to keep in mind that it will be getting warmer in the coming week, but that does not mean it will stay that way. I believe that because the teleconnections here reflect a very cold pattern, and the stratosphere is undergoing significant warming (I have not mentioned this in the post here but if you want more info check out this post here http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/stratospheric-analysis-and-forecast.html ) this will lead to a significant cold period by the end of the month.

Now I present my temperature anomaly graphic for the end of the month.

I know this may seem a little over-done, but I will be very surprised if we get to the end of January without seeing some very cold air across our region.

 

Karl

Southern U.S. Temperature Forecast - January 7, 2013

This is tomorrows forecast for the Southeast. The blue is what you should wake up to tomorrow morning and the red is the afternoon high.

Late January Outlook

Below is My Late January Outlook.

Stay tuned for more updates!

Forecasting Regions

Hey guys, those who visit this site, can forecast for any of the following areas:

However, we ask for any of the forecasters to be: 12 years old or older, not to wish cast  be able to make their own forecasts, and to be as legitimate and accurate as possible.
Thank you-Forecaster-Founder of US Wide Weather Forecasts